Scenarios
Scenario explorer
Move the dials to see how the model responds to your assumptions. What if AI adoption speeds up? What if it stalls?
Exposed occupations with a measured AI-use dose.
National, or a scored metro.
Workers
Result year
Uncertainty
View
…
…
change in employment from today, if these assumptions hold. A model result, not a prediction.
…
Employment index, today = 100. Starts at today and ends December 2030, the same year-end points as the table below.
Not enough data for this combination
| Year | Model path | Band low | Band high |
|---|
US impact
US metros, colored by how many more or fewer jobs your assumptions leave there compared to the assumed defaults, based on the occupation and workers you picked. Orange means fewer jobs than the defaults, blue means more, and gray means your assumptions change little.
8+ points fewer jobs
8+ points more jobs
Not scored here
Select a metro to set the Place control. The map recolors as the dials move; the ranked list below the map carries the same geography.
Biggest differences from default
Which occupations move most
Change by 2030 under your settings, largest first. The list re-sorts as you move the dials. Select a row to chart it.
Fewer jobsMore jobs
Sources and assumptions
Published scenario odds
Not available yet. The reviewed odds for each scenario will appear here when they are released, in the same layout, with the date they were approved. Until then, everything above is an explorer.
Accelerated[ % ]
Gradual[ % ]
Augmentation[ % ]
How to read this page
How to read the graph
The line is what the model says under your dials — at the strongest response the published research supports. The band is centered on your line, with the research's spread and the monthly noise term applied around it, so it moves whenever you move a dial.
How to read the map
Colors show how far your settings move each place from the measured defaults, not how high or low its number is. Gray means your settings change little there.
Mind the dials
Your assumptions live behind the Your assumptions button, at the top of the graph panel. Hover or tab to the i button next to a dial for its default and its source.